Travelling down a dangerous road:

At the time of writing, things were turning – as we would say in Trinidad and Tobago – ‘ole mas’ as the 51-year old ruling party seems to be facing some discord over the fall-out of a secretly commissioned poll on the performance of parliamentarians, literally on the eve of a general elections.
Based on the findings of the poll commissioned by Patrick Manning, the leader of the ruling People’s National Movement (PNM) and conducted by Jamaica-based pollster Bill Johnson, several well-known incumbents are now facing the boot.
At least three have been identified as scoring low on their performance in their constituencies and now face the axe of not getting the nod for re-election.
One of those identified as scoring low is Trade and Industry Minister Ken Valley who has challenged the Bill Johnson poll and has commissioned his own poll which he says, shows that the electorate in his constituency gave him a thumb’s up for his performance as their parliamentarian.
Many more, for one reason or the other have opted not to offer themselves for re-election.
Three because of corruption and obscene language court cases; another three because of health reasons; three more because of old age and three for personal reasons.
In the latter group, the decision by Health Minister John Rahael not to seek re-election has come an a surprise for the country and for some in the PNM, a major upset.
Mr. Rahael, incidentally, scored the highest as the MP serving his constituents, even beating out the prime minister in his constituency.
All this bacchanal is happening at a time when the country is on an election high, anticipating the announcement of the date of the elections which are due no later than January 2008.
Gauging public reaction to the poll and the surprise decision of some of the representatives not to offer themselves up for re-election, there’s now a conspiracy theory making the rounds in the public domain that Mr. Manning, the longest-serving parliamentarian in the country and in the Caribbean with 36 years in Parliament, is hell-bent on taking revenge and settling old scores with some political foes.
Editorials in several newspapers this past week and callers to radio and television talk show have alluded to this as well.
But the conspiracy theory goes further to suggest that Mr. Manning, now being dubbed the Emperor by some very unkind members of the public, was deliberately getting rid of the strongest people from participating in the elections and replacing them with hand-picked loyalists who would offer up no threat to him, to have his own way, in the party and in the government.
If there’s an inkling of truth in any of this, Mr. Manning would have set himself on a dangerous course to have total power to do whatever he wants.
And that, as we all know leads down the road to dictatorship and authoritarian rule.
A radio caller recently observed the newly constructed US$24 million prime minister’s residence and diplomatic centre, being fit for a King, while the President of the country, Max Richards has moved into living quarters behind the official residence which seems to have been abandoned to ruins as there are no signs of major renovation or repair works.
Connect the dot, warned the caller, referring to earlier statements made by Mr. Manning about the country moving to have an executive president.
Political analyst and pollster and well-known friend of the PNM, Dr. Selwyn Ryan talked about the current problems facing the ruling party as going deeper than the poll and was really based on historical festering “jealousies and anxieties” among senior party members.
He added that no party wants to be reshuffling its front bench on the eve of an elections and must be a team that plays together and not a one-man team – as what seems to be emerging in the ruling party.
Maybe, Mr. Manning is not worried and not losing any sleep over the debacle unfolding daily in his party, perhaps comfortable in his thought that the two main opposition parties were still snarling at each other’s throat.
And maybe, he’s under the illusion that there’s no way his party would come close to losing the general elections.
Probably too, he’s relying on an infamous remark made by the party’s founder and the country’s first prime minister, Dr. Eric Williams, that if he put a balisier tie (the party’s symbol) on a crapaud (frog) to run in the elections, it would win.
Sadly, there is a measure of truth to this.
However, Mr. Manning would do well to remember, the almost obliteration of the PNM in 1986 when opposition parties formed an accommodation which led to the defeat of the PNM for the first time in over 30 years.
Again, in 1995, the PNM lost power when the United National Congress formed the government with the two Tobago election winners. In 2001, the UNC and the PNM ended in a tie, 18-18 and after a hung parliament, fresh elections were held the following year in which the PNM improved on its control for seats.
The latest poll (not by Bill Johnson) shows that if general elections are called today, the PNM would win. However, the same poll found that if the two opposition parties are united, it stands a chance of winning the elections.
But let’s come back a bit to the secret poll which Mr. Manning did on his MPs.
It is now being compared to the infamous ‘undated letter’ in 1976 orchestrated by the PNM’s founder and the country’s first prime minister Dr. Williams that parliamentarians sign resignation letters to protect the party from defection.
Karl Hudson-Phillips, then an MP under the PNM refused to sign the undated letter, arguing that it was laying the foundation for autocratic rule and fascism.
It is also instructive, that earlier this week, the PNM’s Vice-Chairman, John Donaldson responded in an acerbic tone that polls were never part of the party’s screening process of candidates for general elections.
Mr. Donaldson added that he knew nothing “at all, at all, at all” about the poll and there was a standard principle in the party in terms of the selection of candidates to contest general elections.
It is a bit astounding that Mr. Manning, given his long years of experience as a politician, is relying so much on a poll conducted by Bill Johnson polling company which not too long ago predicted that Dr. Kenny Anthony’s party would have won the St. Lucia elections by a 14-3 margin.
It’s now history that Dr. Anthony’s party took a heavy beating from the United Workers Party, led by octogenarian, Sir John Compton, now hooked up to a respirator as his health continues to deteriorate.
And yes, Bill Johnson correctly predicted a Jamaica Labour Party win but just about everybody was predicting the same – well except for the defeated People’s National Party leader and out-going prime minister, Portia Simpson-Miller and fellow supporters.
It would also be wise for Mr. Manning to note carefully that the three general elections fought in the Caribbean recently, namely, St Lucia, Bahamas and now Jamaica, have resulted in defeat for the incumbents and this despite the improved economic showings of the three countries.
During his recent presentation of the 2007/2008 US$7 billion national budget, Mr. Manning went into great lengths about the economic achievements under his watch over the last five years.
According to Mr. Manning, over the 2002-2006 period, the economy grew at a high rate of GDP of 9.7 percent per year.
The rapid rate of growth led to a doubling of the economy from US$9 billion in 2001 to US$18.3 billion in 2006 and an increase in per capita income from US$7,100 in 2002 to US$14,790 in 2006.
The Trinidad and Tobago economy has in fact been on the upswing over the last 13 years – but its performance has taken second place in terms of election issues.
The major issue has been crime – and the PNM’s record on this over the last five years is hardly impressive.